A new survey of 650 likely voters from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University finds Democrat Bobby Pulido, a two-time Latin Grammy–winning Tejano artist, leading two-term Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz 51%-44% in Texas’s 15th Congressional District, with 5% undecided (margin of error ±3.84%). The race splits sharply by geography. Pulido leads 58%-38% in Hidalgo County, where nearly two-thirds of the district’s likely voters live, while De La Cruz leads 57%-36% across the district’s other 10 counties. Pulido is also viewed more favorably, at 49% favorable to 40% unfavorable, compared with 38%-51% for De La Cruz. At the top of the ticket, the district is far more competitive than its recent history suggests. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 50%-45% for U.S. Senate, and Gina Hinojosa edges Greg Abbott 49%-47% for Governor, in a district Ted Cruz carried by 9 points and Donald Trump by 18 in 2024.
Economic strain runs through the results. More than half of likely voters (52%) say their family is worse off than a year ago, while only 21% say they are better off. Inflation and higher prices (23%), political corruption (22%), and the economy (19%) rank as the top issues driving vote choice. Pulido voters cite corruption most often (31%), and De La Cruz voters cite border security most often (22%). President Trump’s job approval in the district stands at 42% approve to 53% disapprove. It drops to 37%-57% on the economy and is closer on immigration and border security at 47%-51%. For many voters the race is also about Trump: 39% say their vote is cast in opposition to him, 34% say it supports him, and 27% say it has nothing to do with him.
Full crosstabs by ethnicity, gender, age, education, county, partisanship, and Latino household language are in the report. Read it here