New Poll: Texas 2026 Races Are Closer Than You Think

A new survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reveals tightly contested statewide races heading into the November 2026 midterm elections in Texas.

With the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton set for May 26, the survey finds either candidate locked in a near-dead heat against Democratic nominee James Talarico — a striking sign of Democratic competitiveness in a state Republicans have dominated for decades. Meanwhile, Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by just 6 points, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick holds a 7-point edge over likely Democratic nominee Vikki Goodwin.

The poll of 1,223 likely voters — conducted April 22–May 6, 2026 and representative of the Texas registered voter population — also breaks down support by race, gender, generation, education, and party, revealing significant divides that will shape campaign strategy in the months ahead.

Read the full report here for complete polling data, candidate favorability ratings, and detailed breakdowns across every key demographic group.