Texas 2026 Senate Primaries: Paxton and O’Rourke Lead Early Contests, But Divisions Run Deep

The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University surveyed 3,000 likely Republican and Democratic primary voters across Texas in August 2025. The results reveal a competitive and polarized landscape heading into the 2026 U.S. Senate primaries. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a slight edge over Senator John Cornyn, while former Congressman Beto O’Rourke commands a strong lead over Congressman Colin Allred among Democrats. The findings also highlight sharp divides along lines of religion, education, region, and demographics, as well as the continuing influence of endorsements from national political figures.

Explore the full report to see how Texans are breaking down by party, region, race, age, and education—and what these early numbers suggest about the road ahead in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races. Read the full report