Talarico Edges Paxton in Toss-Up Senate Race as Abbott Holds Narrow Lead in New TSU Poll

Two of Texas's top statewide races are effectively tied. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center's latest survey of 1,800 likely voters puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by a single point, 47% to 46%, in the U.S. Senate race, while Republican Governor Greg Abbott holds a slightly wider but still competitive 49%-45% edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa.

Below those two marquee contests, the picture turns murkier rather than clearer. Republicans lead every other statewide race on the ballot—Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, and Railroad Commissioner—but by margins that mask how little voters actually know about the candidates running. In the Railroad Commissioner race, for instance, Republican Bo French's lead over Democrat Jon Rosenthal has shrunk from a +5 net favorability rating in July to -10% today, even as 46% of voters still can't form an opinion of him. Down-ballot Democrats fare worse still: three in four voters don't know enough about Rosenthal to rate him at all.

What ties the ticket together is the Republican coalition itself, and it isn't unified. Asked which wing of the party they most identify with, likely GOP voters split almost evenly between MAGA (39%) and Traditional Conservative (37%)—and that fault line shows up in the numbers: self-identified Moderate Republicans back Paxton over Talarico by a comparatively soft 59%-27%, while MAGA and Traditional Conservative Republicans back him at 98% and 86%. Trump's own standing hasn't fully closed the gap either—his approval among likely voters sits at 46% favorable to 53% unfavorable, even though 88% of his 2024 voters say they're glad they backed him.

Full breakdowns by race, gender, age, education, and partisanship are in the report. Read it here