In Texas's Most Competitive Districts, Democrats Now Lead Where Trump Won Big

A new survey from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center of likely voters in Texas's three most competitive U.S. House races finds each contest within single digits: Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Monica De La Cruz 50% to 45% in TX-15, Democrat Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina 45% to 34% in TX-28, and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez leads Republican Eric Flores 45% to 42% in TX-34. All three South Texas districts, redrawn in the 2025 redistricting and rated among the nation's most competitive by the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, are considered pivotal to which party controls the U.S. House in 2026.

Yet the same voters tell a starkly different story at the top of the ticket. President Trump's job approval is underwater by double digits in all three districts (40% approve, 54%-56% disapprove), and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico by 8 to 11 points in districts Trump carried by wide margins just two years earlier — he defeated Kamala Harris by 18 points in TX-15 and 10 points in both TX-28 and TX-34 in 2024. The pattern points to real ticket-splitting: in TX-28 alone, 20% of Republicans and 23% of 2024 Trump voters say they intend to vote for Cuellar, the Democratic incumbent. Dive into the full report for the complete district-by-district breakdown by race, gender, age, education, and partisanship. Read the full report here